- AFRICOM warned that jihadist groups in the Sahel already have the intent to target U.S. interests, even if their ability to strike the U.S. homeland remains uncertain.
- Gen. Dagvin Anderson acknowledged major U.S. intelligence and surveillance gaps in Africa, worsened by reduced Western influence and limited access to bases in the Sahel.
- Washington is pushing for new ISR investments, including AI and space-based systems, as it increasingly views the Sahel as a potential source of global terrorist threats.
The expansion of jihadist groups across the Sahel could eventually become a direct threat to the United States, but Washington may not currently have the intelligence capabilities needed to detect that shift in time. That was the warning delivered by Gen. Dagvin Anderson, head of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), during a recent hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Anderson told lawmakers that African affiliates of ISIS and al-Qaeda already possess “the will and intent” to strike U.S. interests. The key uncertainty, he said, is understanding when these groups could acquire the operational capability and resources necessary to conduct attacks against the U.S. homeland. His remarks reflected growing concern within Washington that the Sahel is no longer viewed simply as a regional security crisis, but increasingly as a potential incubator for global terrorist threats.
The AFRICOM commander also acknowledged significant operational and intelligence limitations facing the United States in Africa, particularly in the Sahel, where jihadist activity has expanded rapidly in recent years. “We have the minimum resources required,” Anderson said, noting that the scale of the continent and the complexity of the threat environment force the Pentagon to constantly reposition assets, “accepting risk in other areas.”
The comments come at a time of growing concern in Washington over the erosion of Western influence in the region. Relations between the United States and several military-led governments in the Sahel have deteriorated in recent years, contributing to the loss of access to strategic bases and complicating counterterrorism cooperation. At the same time, jihadist organizations have intensified operations by exploiting security vacuums and institutional fragility across several African states.
Anderson identified Mali as one of the most concerning fronts. A potential jihadist takeover of Bamako, he argued, would represent a “game changer” both symbolically and operationally, allowing extremist groups to attract new recruits and strengthen their international legitimacy. The scenario highlights how U.S. officials increasingly fear that territorial gains by jihadist organizations in the Sahel could eventually translate into broader transnational capabilities.
Despite these constraints, the United States continues to conduct counterterrorism operations across the continent. Only days before Anderson’s testimony, U.S. and Nigerian forces carried out a joint operation that killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, described as the global number two figure within ISIS and a key coordinator of the group’s activities in West Africa. The operation was presented as one of the most significant blows dealt to ISIS in recent months and underscored Washington’s continued strategic focus on the African theater.
To address current intelligence gaps, AFRICOM is seeking greater investment in ISR — intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance — capabilities as part of the Pentagon’s 2027 budget request. Anderson said the command is exploring new technological solutions, including commercial platforms, space-based systems and artificial intelligence tools, in an effort to “illuminate the intelligence black hole in the Sahel.”
The general also acknowledged that the continued use of current aerial surveillance platforms is becoming financially unsustainable. As a result, the United States is increasingly looking toward cheaper and more flexible technologies that can be integrated more easily with African partner forces, which frequently rely on U.S. intelligence support during counterterrorism operations.
The remarks from AFRICOM suggest that U.S. officials now see the Sahel as a strategic theater with implications extending far beyond Africa itself. For Washington, the challenge is no longer limited to containing regional instability, but to preventing jihadist groups operating in the region from eventually developing the capability to threaten U.S. interests on a global scale.
