- AI is the next transformative General-Purpose Technology, with the potential to reshape global power through its cognitive, autonomous, and self-improving capabilities.
- The ORF study shows that historical GPTs rewarded early, strategic adopters—and AI is no exception. Nations that lead in adoption and diffusion will gain lasting economic and geopolitical advantages.
- Building national AI ecosystems is critical. As highlighted in the study, infrastructure, talent, public R&D, and catalytic demand must align to translate AI potential into national power.
Throughout history, general-purpose technologies (GPTs) have been decisive in shaping global power dynamics. From Gutenberg’s printing press to the steam engine, from electrification to the digital revolution, each technological shift has redefined the trajectory of nations. Those able to adopt, adapt, and diffuse these systemic innovations gained long-lasting economic, military, and geopolitical advantages. Artificial Intelligence (AI) now stands as the next great inflection point—with even deeper and more pervasive implications.
In a recent study published by the Observer Research Foundation, Amith Parameshwara, a doctoral scholar at the Indian School of Business, and Arvind Gupta, Head of the Digital India Foundation and Adjunct Professor at IIT-BHU, argue that AI marks a step change from previous GPTs. Unlike past innovations, which enhanced physical productivity or communication, AI introduces cognitive functions, self-improvement capabilities, and autonomous decision-making. It is not only transformative in scope—it is recursive in nature, with each advancement enabling the next.
Parameshwara and Gupta show that AI’s diffusion is already redrawing the map of global influence. The technology is projected to contribute over \$13 trillion to the global economy by 2030, yet its benefits are not evenly distributed. Advanced economies and incumbent technology leaders are best positioned to capture early gains, while countries that lag in infrastructure, talent, and capital face the risk of long-term marginalisation.
Militarily, AI is reshaping strategic balance through autonomous systems, predictive surveillance, and accelerated decision-making. Its integration into national defence strategies is creating asymmetries that traditional doctrines are ill-equipped to manage. At the same time, AI is restructuring public service delivery, regulatory capacity, and institutional efficiency. Nations that integrate AI into state functions—from healthcare to urban planning—can radically improve outcomes, but also face new vulnerabilities related to data governance, algorithmic bias, and security.
The global race is already underway. The United States is pursuing deregulated industrial acceleration under a growth-first doctrine. China combines heavy state investment with tight control. The European Union is trying to balance innovation with regulatory safeguards. Meanwhile, countries such as India, South Korea, and Japan are betting on targeted investments, language-specific models, and domestic innovation ecosystems.
The authors argue that strategic advantage will depend less on invention and more on ecosystem construction. This includes investing in compute infrastructure and semiconductors, creating pools of skilled talent, supporting research through sustained public and private funding, and catalysing demand through strategic public procurement. India’s own experience in building a globally competitive IT services sector demonstrates how late adopters can still gain ground—if they identify their comparative advantages and sustain them with coordinated policy and investment.
Ultimately, Parameshwara and Gupta conclude that AI is not merely another wave of technological change—it is the new grammar of power. As in every previous GPT revolution, nations that move decisively, with vision and institutional agility, will shape the future order. Those that do not will be forced to adapt to rules they did not write.
