- China seeks to exploit transatlantic divisions: Beijing is ramping up diplomatic engagement with European countries to advance its strategic interests and drive a wedge between the EU and the United States, capitalizing on the uncertainty caused by Donald Trump’s return and his aggressive trade policies.
- Europe is torn between openness to China and defense of the US alliance: While some leaders, like Spain’s Pedro Sánchez, explore engagement with Beijing, others—such as Italy’s Giorgia Meloni—are doubling down on the transatlantic partnership. Her upcoming visit to Washington is seen as a move to preserve strategic balance amid global turbulence.
- Strategic leadership in Europe is at stake: As James Carafano (Heritage Foundation) told Decode39, China is “the primary threat to the security and prosperity of the West,” and Europe must resist Chinese influence by maintaining strong ties with the US. Meloni could emerge as a key voice in upholding transatlantic unity.
Beijing sees a strategic window of opportunity to recalibrate its relationship with the European Union and simultaneously weaken the cohesion of the transatlantic alliance. This assessment is driving a wave of diplomatic outreach from Chinese officials, as Jamestown’s Arran Hope explains, with representatives from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Communist Party’s International Department stepping up bilateral contacts across Europe in recent weeks. Their goal: to encourage European interlocutors to advocate for Beijing’s preferences at the EU level. Some experts in the People’s Republic of China are skeptical that Beijing can successfully persuade Europe to pivot away from the United States but nevertheless view attempting to do so as a worthwhile course of action.
This diplomatic push comes amid a major transformation in global trade dynamics, driven by the return of Donald Trump to the White House. As Vas Shenoy wrote in Formiche, President Trump’s commercial diplomacy is shaping up to be the most dramatic overhaul of globalization since the Second World War. Friends, allies, competitors, and adversaries alike have felt the impact—albeit to varying degrees—as the contours of a global reset take form. So far, the Trump administration has only engaged in serious negotiations with a handful of strategic partners—Vietnam, India, South Korea, and Japan—deliberately excluding the EU while prioritizing countries that can help counterbalance China.
In this volatile scenario, Beijing is attempting to exploit fractures within the EU and capitalize on growing unease toward Washington’s tariff wars and unpredictability. While skepticism that Europe can be truly persuaded to pivot away from the United States—especially given NATO’s renewed importance following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—many policy planner in China still view the effort as a worthwhile strategic gamble.
Recent developments suggest Beijing sees openings. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s visit to China, perceived as a goodwill gesture toward Xi Jinping, reportedly ended with a subtle invitation to join Beijing in resisting “tariff bullying” from the U.S. For Chinese strategists, such moments are signs that deeper inroads into Europe are possible, particularly by engaging selectively with member states open to “pragmatic” diplomacy.
Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni—dubbed by some observers as “Trump’s whisperer”—has chosen a different approach. Her upcoming visit to Washington on April 17 is seen as a high-stakes effort to preserve and reinforce the transatlantic partnership, a cornerstone of Italy’s and Europe’s postwar foreign policy, while seeking an arrangement that can shield European interests from collateral damage in the new era of global economic realignment.
China is closely monitoring these diverging signals. Its diplomatic posture remains tactical but persistent: leveraging EU divisions, offering economic incentives, and pushing a narrative of multipolar cooperation against U.S. unilateralism. The upcoming EU-China summit will serve as a critical test of whether Beijing’s efforts are gaining traction.
As Heritage Foundation’s James Carafano put it in an interview with Decode39, China is the primary threat to the security and prosperity of the West. He added, Europe must recognize that its security depends on resisting Chinese influence and maintaining a strong bond with the United States. Carafano also underscored Italy’s pivotal role, stating that Meloni can be a key voice in reinforcing transatlantic unity during this moment of global uncertainty.
