The sudden collapse of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule has sent shockwaves through Bangladesh and introduced significant volatility to the Bay of Bengal region. On Monday, Hasina fled the country as the security situation became untenable. She resigned after thousands of protesters defied a military curfew and stormed her official residence, Ganabhaban, sparking violence that left at least 56 people dead, according to local authorities. Army Chief Waker-Uz-Zaman confirmed in an address that Hasina had left the country, and that the military would form an interim government. However, it remains unclear if he will lead this government.

Hasina’s resignation follows months of escalating unrest, beginning with deadly protests over the reintroduction of a quota scheme for government jobs in July. These protests soon merged with political violence instigated by opposition parties, further destabilizing the

As millions of Bangladeshis took to the streets, celebrating Hasina’s ouster, the situation quickly turned chaotic. Mobs looted the Prime Minister’s residence and the parliament, with violent clashes reported across the country. Minority Hindus and local leaders of Hasina’s Awami League became prime targets of the violence, raising fears of deepening sectarian strife.

The power vacuum left by Hasina’s departure places Bangladesh, a country of over 170 million people, in a precarious position. With the opposition heavily reliant on the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami, which has links to the Muslim Brotherhood, there are concerns that Bangladesh could spiral into long-term instability, akin to the situation in Pakistan.

Army Chief Waker-Uz-Zaman has called for an end to the protests, promising that “all the injustices will be addressed.” However, it is uncertain who will lead the country moving forward. While Hasina has reportedly landed at the Hindon airbase near Delhi, there is speculation that she will stay in Delhi before heading to London. It has been reported that she has met with India’s National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval.

During her tenure, Hasina presided over significant economic growth, particularly in the textile industry, with increasing participation of women. However, her government also faced international criticism for political crackdowns and allegations of rigged elections.

India, which shares deep historical and cultural ties with Bangladesh, now faces a complex and volatile situation. Bangladesh’s strategic location and its relationships with China and India make it a key player in regional dynamics. The ouster of Hasina, seen as a close ally of Indian Prime Minister Modi, raises concerns about the future of India’s investments and connectivity projects in the Bay of Bengal.

There is speculation that external forces, possibly including the U.S. or Pakistan’s ISI, could be behind the coup, aiming to shift the regional balance of power. The possibility of an Islamist government in Dhaka also raises fears about a breakdown in anti-terrorism cooperation with India and the potential for increased tensions over border security, migration, and minority rights.

Despite these risks, India has so far categorized the coup as an “internal matter” and is expected to take a cautious approach to the unfolding crisis. The events in Bangladesh could have far-reaching implications for the Bay of Bengal region, where stability is already under pressure from multiple geopolitical forces.