- Technology defines power. Italy’s intelligence views the Indo-Pacific as the central arena of technological competition shaping future geopolitical balances.
- Supply chains are strategic tools. China’s dominance in critical resources and infrastructure highlights how economic leverage can become geopolitical pressure.
- Instability remains structural. From the South China Sea and Taiwan to North Korea and regional rivalries, the Indo-Pacific is seen as a region where multiple tensions overlap and require careful management.
Italy’s 2026 intelligence report places the Indo-Pacific at the center of global strategic competition, reflecting a growing awareness in Rome that the region’s dynamics are reshaping the broader international order.
For Italian analysts, the Indo-Pacific is not a distant theater. It is the arena where technological competition, maritime security, supply chains, and strategic rivalries converge — developments that directly affect European security and economic resilience.
The report frames the region as a key axis along which global power balances are evolving, particularly through competition over emerging technologies and critical resources.
Technology and power in a new strategic geography
According to Italy’s intelligence community, technological supremacy is becoming the primary determinant of geopolitical influence.
Control over advanced sectors — from artificial intelligence to semiconductors and quantum technologies — increasingly defines the ability of states to project power. This trend is particularly visible in the strategic competition involving the People’s Republic of China and the United States.
From Rome’s perspective, the Indo-Pacific is the region where this competition is unfolding most visibly. The technological race is intertwined with economic leverage and military modernization, creating a strategic environment characterized by long-term systemic rivalry rather than immediate confrontation.
The Italian report suggests that technological competition is not merely an industrial issue but a structural factor shaping international security.
Rare earths and the weaponization of supply chains
A significant element in this strategic landscape is China’s dominance in critical raw materials, particularly rare earth elements.
Italian intelligence estimates that Beijing controls more than 90 percent of the global rare earth processing chain, giving it a powerful lever within international supply networks.
These materials are indispensable for high-tech manufacturing, including renewable energy systems, advanced electronics, and defense platforms such as the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II.
The report describes Beijing’s ability to restrict exports of these materials as a potential tool of economic coercion. Even when not fully deployed, the mere possibility of restrictions underscores the strategic vulnerability of Western supply chains.
For Italy and other European countries, this dynamic reinforces the need to diversify access to critical resources while reducing strategic dependencies.
Maritime tensions in the South China Sea
Security risks in Asia remain closely linked to maritime disputes, particularly in the South China Sea.
Italian intelligence identifies this maritime theater as one of the most volatile areas in the region, where repeated confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels illustrate the growing risk of accidental escalation.
These incidents do not necessarily reflect a deliberate intention to trigger open conflict. Instead, they highlight the fragility of the regional security environment, where tactical encounters at sea could rapidly evolve into broader crises.
For European observers, the stability of these sea lanes carries global implications. A significant share of international trade passes through Indo-Pacific maritime routes, linking Asian production hubs with European markets.
Taiwan and the political horizon of 2028
The future of Taiwan represents another critical variable.
Italian intelligence considers a large-scale military escalation across the Taiwan Strait unlikely before 2027. However, analysts identify the island’s 2028 elections as a potential turning point.
Beijing hopes that the opposition Kuomintang could return to power, reopening channels of dialogue with mainland China.
If instead the ruling Democratic Progressive Party remains in office, the report suggests that China could increase pressure through military demonstrations, coercive diplomacy, or even forms of maritime blockade designed to test the island’s resilience.
The intelligence assessment therefore frames the Taiwan issue less as an imminent conflict scenario and more as a long-term strategic contest shaped by political developments on the island.
Managing rivalry between Washington and Beijing
Despite deep strategic competition, the report notes that 2025 saw a partial stabilization in relations between the United States and China.
High-level diplomatic engagement helped reduce the immediate risk of a sudden rupture in bilateral relations.
Italian intelligence interprets this phase of dialogue not as a resolution of rivalry but as an attempt by both sides to manage competition while avoiding economic shocks.
Given the depth of economic interdependence between the two powers, maintaining a minimum level of communication remains essential for global stability.
North Korea’s evolving nuclear posture
Another factor contributing to Indo-Pacific instability is the continued expansion of North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities.
The report highlights the strengthening relationship between North Korea and Russia, which has reinforced Pyongyang’s strategic confidence.
At the same time, improved relations with China provide North Korea with additional diplomatic and economic backing.
Italian intelligence assesses that Pyongyang is unlikely to abandon its nuclear arsenal entirely. Instead, it may seek negotiations that would formally recognize it as a nuclear power while easing international sanctions.
Competition beneath the oceans
Beyond traditional military competition, the report identifies the underwater domain as an emerging strategic frontier.
China is expanding its capabilities in deep-sea exploration and undersea infrastructure through a centralized, state-driven industrial strategy.
Although Chinese firms currently account for only around 5 to 10 percent of global submarine cable capacity — largely concentrated in intra-Asian routes — Beijing is investing heavily in deepwater ports, seabed mining, and maritime infrastructure.
Control of subsea networks is becoming increasingly important, as these cables carry the majority of global digital communications and financial transactions.
For European intelligence agencies, protecting such infrastructure represents a growing security priority.
A region of overlapping conflicts
Finally, the report underscores the growing number of regional tensions across the Indo-Pacific.
Beyond major-power competition, the intelligence community is monitoring a range of inter-state disputes involving regional actors. These include recurring tensions between India and Pakistan, as well as frictions between countries such as Cambodia and Thailand and between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Taken together, these disputes illustrate a region characterized by overlapping layers of instability.
Italy’s strategic perspective
For Italy, the Indo-Pacific is increasingly viewed as an integral component of its broader strategic horizon.
The intelligence report reflects a growing awareness in Rome that developments in the region — from technological competition to maritime security — will shape the future of global trade, industrial supply chains, and geopolitical balance.
In this sense, the Indo-Pacific is no longer perceived solely through the lens of distant great-power rivalry. Instead, it is understood as a strategic space whose stability and governance carry direct implications for Europe’s security and prosperity.
