- Axis building: Meloni’s visits to Tunis and Istanbul reinforce a strategic triangle focused on Libya, migration, and regional stability.
- Libya focus: Rome, Ankara, and Tripoli to coordinate on border control, trafficking, and Russian influence in Cyrenaica.
- Broader stakes – With Turkey: defence and regional diplomacy. With Tunisia: energy, legal migration, and development.
In the span of 48 hours, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visited two key Mediterranean capitals: Tunis and Istanbul. These back-to-back meetings were far from symbolic. They are part of a deliberate and structured diplomatic strategy to reinforce Italy’s Mediterranean axis and project stability across the interconnected spaces of the Maghreb, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific. At the core: Libya, migration governance, and the implementation of the Mattei gPlan.
A flexible but functional Mediterranean coalition
Meloni’s trilateral meeting in Istanbul with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Libya’s Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabaiba aimed to strengthen joint efforts in securing Libya’s borders and countering human trafficking networks. But the groundwork was laid the day before in Tunis, where Meloni met with President Kais Saied to advance economic and energy cooperation, legal migration pathways, and sustainable development initiatives — including the TANIT project and the upcoming regional agricultural training centre.
What emerges is a functional Mediterranean coalition, with Italy, Turkey, and Tunisia aligned — albeit from different positions — around common priorities: regional security, Libyan stabilisation, migration management, and the containment of external influence, particularly from Russia.
Libya: the strategic hinge of convergence
Libya remains the central litmus test for Mediterranean diplomacy. Turkey continues to exert influence in Tripoli and Misrata and is now engaging with eastern warlord Khalifa Haftar, expanding its footprint in Cyrenaica. This is the region from which many irregular migrant flows originate — flows that Italy suspects are being manipulated by Moscow as part of a hybrid pressure campaign. Russia maintains a growing military and logistical presence in eastern Libya, raising concerns in both Rome and Brussels.
Italy’s approach aims to balance this complex scenario by fostering inclusive political reconciliation and leveraging renewed U.S. interest in the Libyan file, which was recently highlighted during Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani’s visit to Washington.
Beyond migration: a broader Indo-Mediterranean vision
The Italy–Turkey partnership rests on more than tactical migration cooperation. It reflects a shared understanding of the Mediterranean as a strategic corridor linked to the Indo-Pacific, where defence ties, industrial cooperation (e.g. joint drone production), and regional diplomacy all play a role. Turkey’s growing influence in Syria, the Balkans, and the Caucasus also positions it as a key strategic partner for Rome.
While Tunisia may not share the same strategic weight as Turkey, it plays a critical stabilising role — particularly through long-term infrastructure projects like the ELMED electricity interconnector and the Rome Process on legal migration and development.
Toward a structured Mediterranean security architecture
The outcome of the Istanbul summit was clear: Italy, Turkey, and Libya committed to launching immediate technical-level cooperation on joint actions in migration and security. This could represent the embryo of a structured Mediterranean security architecture, with Italy acting as a facilitator among diverse actors to foster layered, functional stability.
In this light, the Rome–Ankara–Tunis triangle, with Libya as a common priority, could become a model for addressing the complex intersections of security, development, and strategic influence across the wider Indo-Mediterranean region.
