- The Gulf’s centrality is underscored by the overlap between China’s push for a Gcc Fta and India’s high-level diplomatic engagement across the region.
- China is acting with urgency and pressure, seeking fast outcomes amid trade frictions and growing strategic competition.
- India is advancing a steadier, trust-based approach, reinforcing long-term partnerships and positioning itself as a credible, non-coercive actor in the Gulf.
The Gulf’s strategic centrality is becoming increasingly visible as major Asian powers converge on the region through overlapping diplomatic initiatives. In mid-December, China and India moved almost simultaneously to reinforce their presence: Beijing pressed the Gulf Cooperation Council (Gcc) to conclude a long-delayed free trade agreement, while New Delhi intensified high-level engagement across West Asia, from Oman to the United Arab Emirates.
In Riyadh, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged the Gcc to “take the final step and make a decision” on the China–Gcc free trade agreement, after more than twenty years of negotiations. The unusually blunt language reflected growing impatience in Beijing, sharpened by recent trade frictions, including anti-dumping duties imposed by the Gcc on Chinese car batteries. Wang framed the agreement as a political signal in defence of multilateralism at a time of rising protectionism, effectively elevating the Fta from a technical trade instrument to a strategic test of alignment.
China’s approach is outcome-driven and time-sensitive. Beijing is seeking regulatory certainty, guaranteed market access, and protection against sudden trade measures in a region critical to its energy security, industrial exports, and Belt and Road connectivity. At the same time, it is watching closely the European Union’s expanding bilateral economic ties with Gulf states, wary of losing influence in a rule-shaping process increasingly crowded by external actors.
India’s posture, by contrast, is unfolding through sustained and layered diplomacy. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarked on a tour that includes Jordan, Ethiopia and Oman, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar was in Abu Dhabi engaging the United Arab Emirates’ top leadership. His meetings with UAE Vice President Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed and Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, alongside participation in the Sir Bani Yas Forum, focused on deepening cooperation across trade, defence, energy and geo-economics. Jaishankar also held talks with Mubadala’s CEO Khaldoon Khalifa Al Mubarak, underscoring the financial and investment dimension of the partnership.
Once departing from the UAE, Jaishankar will travel to Israel. The Ministry of External Affairs said that the External Affairs Minister’s visit will focus on strengthening bilateral relations and holding consultations on regional and global developments. Just last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi received a phone call from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, during which the two leaders reviewed the progress of the India–Israel Strategic Partnership and reaffirmed their shared stance of “zero tolerance towards terrorism”. Meanwhile, Secretary (East) P. Kumaran met Miguel Ángel Moratinos, Under-Secretary-General and High Representative of the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations (UNAOC), on the sidelines of the 11th UNAOC Global Forum in Riyadh. During the meeting, Kumaran congratulated Moratinos on the successful co-hosting of the Forum and the two sides exchanged views on issues of mutual interest.
These engagements are not episodic. They reflect the depth of India–Gulf ties, anchored in a comprehensive strategic partnership and institutionalised through mechanisms such as the Joint Commission and Strategic Dialogue with the UAE. Unlike China’s push for a single, high-visibility agreement, India is reinforcing a dense network of political trust, economic interdependence and people-to-people links, including a large diaspora presence and long-standing commercial ties.
The contrast is instructive. China is pressing for closure and signalling urgency; India is consolidating presence and optionality. Both recognise the Gulf as a strategic crossroads linking Asia, Africa and Europe, and as an increasingly autonomous actor capable of shaping external engagement on its own terms. Yet India’s approach—incremental, diversified and less transactional—appears better aligned with the Gulf states’ preference for flexibility amid intensifying great-power competition.
Taken together, Wang Yi’s pressure diplomacy and India’s multi-track engagement highlight not only the Gulf’s centrality, but also the region’s growing leverage. As external powers converge, Gulf states are less compelled to choose sides and more able to balance partnerships—extracting value from different approaches while retaining strategic autonomy.
