The October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas against Israel dramatically altered the security dynamics across the Indo-Mediterranean region. What was previously perceived as a stable situation quickly unravelled, spreading chaos from Gaza through the broader Middle East and the Indian Ocean. This transformation has created new challenges for regional powers and global players, complicating efforts to maintain stability.
A year of spreading conflict
The conflict that began in Gaza has since expanded well beyond its borders, pulling in crucial actors from across the region. Hezbollah’s active involvement in Lebanon, combined with ongoing proxy battles in Syria, Iraq, and notably Yemen, has destabilised the region further. The Houthis, acting in alignment with Iran, have been a particularly destabilising force. Their attacks on maritime routes and involvement in the broader anti-Israel front have significantly heightened tensions in the Indo-Mediterranean, with a direct impact on international trade and security in this strategic area that connects Europe and Asia.
While Israel has engaged in direct and proxy confrontations with Iran, the one-year-after broader picture is one of fragmenting security structures across the region. Despite the significant escalation, the conflict has not yet reached the threshold of a full-blown regional war. Still, such an outcome remains a real possibility as the situation evolves.
The potential for normalisation and the IMEC project
Although the October 7 attack disrupted many existing assumptions about regional alliances and put in difficulty the Abraham Accords, the possibility of normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Israel remains. Diplomatic efforts to bring Riyadh and Tel Aviv closer together have not completely stalled, and they have not even been complicated. The strategic interests of both countries could still drive progress. The broader geostrategic context—centred on countering Iranian influence—creates incentives for Saudi Arabia to pursue a deeper engagement with Israel.
This dynamic is also tied to the future of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a critical project that could reshape economic ties across the Indo-Mediterranean. IMEC represents a significant opportunity for Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, to solidify their economic partnerships and enhance their geopolitical standing. The project’s success, however, hinges on stabilising key regions affected by the ongoing conflict.
Iran and its axis of resistance
Iran’s role in the conflict has grown substantially over the past year. Through its proxies—most notably Hezbollah and the Houthis—Tehran has sought to expand its influence across the region. As mentioned, the Houthis have played a disruptive role, launching attacks on commercial shipping and challenging Israel’s strategic interests. Hezbollah is a significant threat in the Eastern Mediterranean. Shia militias in Iraq and Syria, and Hamas, too, remain a tremendous regional security challenge. These actions have further entangled the Indo-Mediterranean in broader regional tensions.
The escalation of hostilities, especially the missile strikes from Iranian territory and attacks on Israeli and U.S. assets has led to heightened fears of a wider war. Despite efforts by the United States to contain the situation, the shadow war between Israel and Iran has come to the forefront, with no clear end in sight. Meanwhile, U.S. forces and assets remain targets for Iran-backed militias across the region, compounding the difficulty of maintaining stability.
Italy-India common challenges
For both India and Italy, the unfolding crisis poses a similar challenge. Both nations maintain strong relations with Israel while also engaging deeply with the Arab world, particularly the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The current instability threatens the geopolitical and geoeconomic interests of both countries, as they view the region as crucial to their broader strategic projection.
The situation has been further complicated by the Houthi attacks, which have reverberated across the western Indian Ocean, including the resurgence of piracy in the Gulf of Somalia. This instability also heightens the risk of a resurgence in global jihadist terrorism or militant activities linked to Hezbollah and Iran, which could impact security far beyond the region.
Such shared predicament has led Rome and New Delhi to adopt similar perspectives in their pursuit of a complex diplomatic solution. Both countries recognize the risks posed by Iran’s activities, political Islam, and jihadist groups within the region, underscoring the importance of stability for their long-term interests.
Toward a new Indo-Mediterranean order?
A year after the Hamas attack, the Indo-Mediterranean region is more fragmented than ever. While countries like Egypt and Jordan struggle with the internal pressures of a prolonged conflict, the Gulf states face the challenge of recalibrating their diplomatic and economic relationships, and the effects of what is happening arrive in India (through the Western Indian Ocean). The region’s future may hinge on projects like IMEC, which offer a path forward based on economic cooperation and shared strategic interests, but how and when?
As the Indo-Mediterranean navigates these complex challenges, the question remains: will this pivotal region find a way to de-escalate and realign, or will it spiral further into a fragmented and prolonged conflict, threatening regional and global order?
