- Strategic Importance: Syria’s stability impacts Middle Eastern and Indo-Mediterranean geopolitics, involving powers like Iran, Russia, Turkey, the EU, China, and the U.S.
- Internal Turmoil: Turkey fights Kurdish factions, the U.S. worries about ISIS, Hezbollah strengthens smuggling routes, and Israel acts in the Golan Heights.
- Regional Impact: Instability disrupts trade and security; a stable Syria could boost economic integration, while global powers reassess their roles.
The future of Syria is not just a domestic concern—it is a crucial element in the broader geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East, the Eastern Mediterranean, and, by extension, the Indo-Mediterranean region. The country’s stability, or lack thereof, influences global powers such as Iran, Russia, and Turkey, engages regional players including the Gulf states and the European Union, and carries implications for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and, to a lesser extent, U.S. foreign policy. The ongoing conflict within Syria continues to shape the balance of power in the region, determining the extent to which external actors can advance their strategic interests.
For over a decade, Syria has been a battleground where multiple power struggles have intersected. The original hope—shared by Western and regional leaders—was that the fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime would bring about a stable, moderate, and inclusive government. Such an outcome was expected to encourage the return of millions of Syrian refugees, facilitate economic recovery, and curb the region’s illicit narcotics trade. However, the reality on the ground remains complex.
Two months after Assad’s departure, the situation remains unstable, particularly in areas where external actors are actively pursuing their strategic objectives. Turkey, for instance, while seeking a stable Syria, has leveraged its relationship with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to intensify operations against Kurdish groups in northern Syria. Ankara’s aim is to prevent Syrian Kurds from providing material support to Kurdish militant groups in Turkey, a long-standing friction point between Ankara and Washington. Despite U.S. support for the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in countering the Islamic State (IS), NATO dynamics have prevented this dispute from severely damaging U.S.-Turkish relations.
Meanwhile, Russia’s partial withdrawal from Syria—driven by its commitments elsewhere—has opened gaps that other players, including Iran and its proxies, have sought to exploit. Iran’s strategic influence in Syria, once secured through Assad’s alliance, has been weakened by the new leadership in Damascus. However, Tehran still sees Syria as a vital corridor for regional influence, particularly through its support for Hezbollah.
Turkey has implemented its strategy by backing the Syrian National Army (SNA), a coalition of 41 anti-Assad factions. With Turkish air and drone support, the SNA has advanced against the SDF in northeast Syria, capturing key areas such as Manbij. The casualties and displacement from these clashes have been significant, with over 400 combatants killed and approximately 100,000 people forced to flee. The battle has moved toward critical infrastructure, including the Tishreen Dam, a key supplier of electricity. Any major damage to this facility would have devastating economic and humanitarian consequences, not just for Syria but for the broader region.
For Washington, the SDF’s shift from counterterrorism to self-defense against the SNA is a growing concern. The U.S. presence in Syria—currently focused on preventing an IS resurgence—relies on the SDF’s capacity to maintain control over IS prisons and camps. The instability resulting from the SDF-SNA conflict risks undermining this mission, potentially allowing IS to regroup.
Moving forward, U.S. officials are considering facilitating cooperation between the SDF and the new Syrian government to combat IS. Such an arrangement could align with former President Trump’s long-standing preference for a U.S. withdrawal from Syria, which was previously postponed due to fears of an IS resurgence and Iranian expansion. With Iran-backed forces largely absent in the post-Assad landscape, Washington may view disengagement as more viable. However, the integration of the SDF into Syria’s national command structure remains a contentious issue, with Kurdish leaders demanding autonomy and transitional Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa insisting on a unified military force.
While dealing with the Kurdish question, the new Syrian leadership is also engaged in another significant front: the Lebanese border, where Hezbollah has sought to establish control over smuggling routes. The Iran-backed group is attempting to compensate for the disruption of its traditional supply lines through Syria by expanding its illicit operations, particularly in drug and arms trafficking.
In response, Syrian forces have intercepted Hezbollah smuggling operations and dismantled narcotics production facilities once protected by Assad’s allies. The Syrian government’s recent clashes with Hezbollah near Al Qusayr underscore Damascus’ determination to assert its sovereignty and curb Tehran’s influence. These efforts coincide with HTS-led actions to dismantle Assad-era drug networks, reinforcing the new government’s bid for legitimacy.
Additionally, the Alawite community—once a cornerstone of Assad’s rule—has become a site of tension. Syrian officials blame Iran for stoking Alawite unrest, suggesting that Tehran may be encouraging local actors to challenge the new leadership. While Alawite demonstrators deny Iranian involvement, their grievances underscore the lingering sectarian fractures in Syria.
Syria’s instability is further complicated by Israeli military actions along the Golan Heights. Following Assad’s fall, Israeli forces moved into former Syrian Arab Army (SAA) positions, fortifying their presence. At the same time, Israel has intensified its airstrikes targeting Syria’s remaining heavy weaponry, missile sites, and suspected chemical facilities.
Despite rhetorical condemnation, Damascus has refrained from engaging Israel militarily—likely to avoid further destabilization and to maintain a diplomatic opening with the West. Any confrontation with Israel would jeopardize efforts to lift economic sanctions and reintegrate Syria into regional frameworks.
The ongoing developments in Syria have far-reaching implications beyond the Middle East. The Eastern Mediterranean is a vital geopolitical crossroads, linking Europe, the Levant, North Africa, and the Persian Gulf to the Indo-Pacific. A stable Syria could facilitate the development of new energy corridors and trade routes linking the Eastern Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean, while continued instability would disrupt regional connectivity and economic cooperation.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has long sought to integrate Syria into its broader infrastructure network. If the new government succeeds in stabilizing the country, Beijing may see an opportunity to expand its influence through investments in reconstruction and connectivity projects.
The EU and Gulf states have a vested interest in preventing further refugee flows and securing economic opportunities in post-conflict Syria. The lifting of sanctions and reintegration of Syria into the regional economy would open new avenues for investment, particularly in energy and logistics.
While the Biden administration, and potentially a second Trump administration, may aim for disengagement, the U.S. will remain involved in regional security. How Washington navigates its relationship with Turkey, the SDF, and the new Syrian government will shape the broader security architecture of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Indo-Mediterranean.
Syria’s post-Assad reality is still unfolding, and its stability remains a pivotal factor in the broader geopolitical balance. The country is at the intersection of competing interests—those of Turkey, Iran, Russia, the Gulf states, and Western powers. The internal conflicts, from the SDF-Turkish confrontation to Hezbollah’s border incursions, are deeply connected to these external dynamics. As Syria seeks to stabilize, the consequences will reverberate beyond its borders, affecting regional trade, energy security, migration patterns, and great-power competition.
