Trump’s Power Play in the Zangezur Corridor

• US secures operational control of Armenia’s Zangezur Corridor, linking Azerbaijan to its exclave and bypassing Iran.
• Move boosts US presence in the Caucasus, challenging Russian and Chinese influence on key trade routes.
• Part of Trump’s broader strategy to reshape Eurasian connectivity through corridors like Tripp and Intsc.

The recent peace deal brokered by the White House between Armenia and Azerbaijan thrusts the United States into the heart of the “Great Game” unfolding across the Caucasus and Central Asia. Central to this agreement is the reported 99-year lease of the Zangezur Corridor to the US.

While many details of the lease remain confidential, key aspects have emerged. The United States—or an international entity it delegates—would gain operational control over the 43-kilometer corridor traversing Armenia’s Syunik province, guaranteeing secure and uninterrupted transit between Azerbaijan’s mainland and its Nakhchivan exclave. This corridor would function as a dedicated trade route, allowing free movement of goods and people without Armenian interference, effectively bypassing Armenia’s internal border controls.

Although Armenia retains formal sovereignty, operational authority would shift, raising concerns over national autonomy and territorial rights. The lease is framed as a means to foster regional stability and economic integration by linking Azerbaijan and Turkey, while positioning the US directly on Iran’s doorstep in Central Asia.

The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has long mirrored broader regional rivalries, particularly between India and Pakistan. India has provided political and military support to Armenia, while Azerbaijan counts Israel and Italy as key allies. Simultaneously, Azerbaijan’s strong ties with Pakistan have fueled India’s backing of Armenia. This peace deal promises to curtail much of this proxy conflict in the Caucasus and, crucially, grants the US unprecedented access to Iran’s border—a development that has deeply unsettled Tehran.

“Mister Trump thinks the Caucasus is a piece of real estate he can lease for 99 years,” declared Ali Akbar Velayati, senior advisor to Iran’s supreme leader, in an interview with IRGC-linked Tasnim News. Iran has vowed to oppose the corridor’s implementation, with or without Russia’s backing. The US presence is seen as encircling Russia and escalating competition over vital trade routes—territory where Beijing and Moscow have long sought to cement influence.

“This passage will not become a gateway for Trump’s mercenaries—it will become their graveyard,” Velayati warned, condemning the lease as “political treachery” aimed at undermining Armenia’s territorial integrity.

Iran’s opposition is rooted in fears that the corridor will redraw borders, fragment Armenia, and restrict Tehran’s own regional access. Past attempts by Turkey and Azerbaijan to advance the corridor prompted Iranian military drills near its northwestern frontier, signaling readiness to block the route.

For Turkish President Erdoğan, the Zangezur Corridor is a cornerstone of his broader Pan-Turkic agenda, which seeks to reinforce political, cultural, and economic bonds among Turkic-speaking nations across Central Asia and the Caucasus. The corridor not only streamlines trade between Azerbaijan and Turkey but also amplifies Ankara’s influence in the South Caucasus. As a vital segment of the “Middle Corridor,” an alternative East-West transit route bypassing Russia and Iran, it links China and Central Asia to Europe through Turkey. Erdoğan’s support reflects his ambition to position Turkey as a pivotal Eurasian trade hub, advancing goals that extend beyond economics to shaping regional identity and alliances. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan described the agreement as “very important and favorable,” expressing hope for the corridor’s imminent implementation. Yet, growing US involvement in this space risks complicating Turkey’s strategic calculations.

By connecting Azerbaijan’s mainland with its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia, the Zangezur Corridor offers a more direct east-west land route facilitating trade between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Europe. This path may compete with or complement China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) corridors by providing an alternative transit option for goods moving between Central Asia and Europe. While not a direct confrontation, the corridor shifts regional dynamics, potentially diluting China’s influence over trade flows. It also introduces greater Western presence, contrasting with China’s typically state-led infrastructure investments.

Renamed the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), the corridor has the potential to reshape the International North–South Trade Corridor (INSTC)—a 7,200-kilometer rail and sea route linking Russia and India. The INSTC aims to cut freight costs by 30% and shorten transit times by 40%, with estimates suggesting transport savings of $2,500 per 15 tons of cargo. Like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which runs east-west, the INSTC is a north-south project. IMEC, signed at the 2023 G20 in New Delhi by US-aligned partners, connects India through the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Israel via Europe to the United States. The INSTC, initiated under the BJP government in 2002 with Atal Bihari Vajpayee as Prime Minister, has long symbolized India’s strategic autonomy amid competing geopolitical interests. With TRIPP, the US is poised to become a key player in both corridors, cementing its influence over Eurasian trade routes.