- China’s Airfield Fortification Advantage: Beijing has built over 3,000 hardened shelters, while the U.S. lags behind, leaving its Pacific airbases vulnerable to missile strikes.
- Gaps in U.S. Defense Strategy: U.S. plans prioritize flexibility over fortification, despite warnings from lawmakers and military analysts.
- Strategic Risks and Urgency for Action: Without rapid investment in airbase resilience, the U.S. risks losing air superiority and destabilizing the Indo-Pacific.
The Hudson Institute recently released a report highlighting the critical vulnerability of U.S. airfields in the Western Pacific to China’s advanced long-range aviation and missile capabilities. The think tank warns that U.S. air bases are at significant risk of suffering devastating losses before a potential conflict even begins, as China has outpaced U.S. efforts to fortify airfield infrastructure.
The Growing Disparity in Airfield Fortifications
The report emphasizes the stark contrast in airbase fortifications between the two military powers. While China has doubled its hardened aircraft shelters to over 3,000 and expanded its runways, the U.S. has only added two since the early 2010s. This disparity leaves U.S. air bases highly susceptible to precision missile strikes, with a significant portion of aircraft losses likely to occur on the ground before takeoff.
China’s extensive fortification efforts enable sustained air operations even under attack, providing a strategic advantage. In contrast, the U.S. reliance on outdated Cold War-era approaches, combined with minimal investment in airfield resilience, increases operational risks and may incentivize Chinese military aggression.
Recommendations for Strengthening U.S. Airfields
To mitigate these risks, the Hudson Institute recommends a multi-year campaign focused on hardening U.S. air bases, deploying active and passive defenses, and restructuring force deployment to allow for operations from dispersed and distant locations. Without these measures, the report warns that the U.S. risks losing air superiority in the Indo-Pacific, which could destabilize the region and provoke preemptive Chinese military actions.
The War Zone’s Findings: Gaps in U.S. Infrastructure Plans
Further complicating matters, a December 2024 analysis by The War Zone highlights the absence of new hardened aircraft shelters in the U.S. Air Force’s latest Installation Infrastructure Action Plan (I2AP). While the plan acknowledges that air bases can no longer be considered sanctuaries and must be able to operate under attack, it prioritizes flexibility and rapid recovery over physical fortification.
Air Force officials argue that diversifying and proliferating assets is more cost-effective than investing heavily in hardened structures. However, this approach has been met with skepticism from U.S. lawmakers, particularly in light of war simulations indicating that most U.S. aircraft losses in a conflict with China would occur on the ground.
Congressional Concerns and Policy Recommendations
Concerns about U.S. airbase vulnerability in the Pacific have also been raised by lawmakers. As Asia Times wrote, Representative John Moolenaar and Senator Marco Rubio sent a letter in May 2024 urging U.S. defense officials to accelerate critical airbase upgrades. They highlighted that China’s advanced missile capabilities now pose a direct threat to all U.S. bases in the region, including Anderson Air Force Base in Guam and those in the Northern Mariana Islands.
The letter criticized the slow adoption of passive defenses, such as hardened shelters, and pointed out that while China has built over 400 such shelters in the past decade, the U.S. has only added 22. Lawmakers also called attention to regulatory hurdles, such as those involving the handling of World War II-era munitions, which delay essential construction projects and increase costs. They warned that failure to act could severely impair U.S. military operations, particularly in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Strategic Consequences of Inaction
The potential consequences of underinvestment in hardened airbase infrastructure were further explored in a December 2024 report by the Stimson Center. The analysis by Kelly Grieco and other experts suggests that Chinese missile strikes could cripple U.S. air operations in the Indo-Pacific by targeting key runways and taxiways, thereby disrupting sortie generation and aerial refueling.
The report estimates that such attacks could ground U.S. fighter operations for up to 12 days and tanker operations for more than a month. The absence of operational tankers would significantly limit U.S. fighter reach and hinder bomber deployment, providing China with a strategic window to achieve its military objectives before U.S. forces recover.
China’s Expanding Long-Range Strike Capabilities
The growing threat of Chinese long-range strikes was also underscored in a December 2024 report by Air & Space Forces Magazine. The publication details China’s expansion of its missile and air force capabilities, emphasizing Beijing’s commitment to an anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and Air Force (PLAAF) have been conducting operations farther from China’s shores, leveraging new air refueling capabilities to extend their operational range.
The U.S. Department of Defense’s 2024 China Military Power report further highlights China’s advancements in long-range aviation and missile forces. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has integrated the Y-20U aerial tanker, enhancing its ability to sustain long-range operations, and is developing the H-20 stealth bomber, which could eventually provide a global strike capability. Meanwhile, the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) has diversified its missile arsenal, introducing hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) and modern intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) such as the DF-27. The DF-17 missile, equipped with HGVs, has significantly strengthened China’s precision strike capabilities across the Western Pacific.
The Urgency of Strengthening U.S. Airbase Resilience
These developments, supported by advances in command and control, missile defense countermeasures, and space-based targeting technologies, highlight China’s strategic intent to achieve military parity with global powers and deter adversaries in multiple domains. The Hudson Institute report and other analyses make clear that without immediate and sustained investment in airbase resilience, the U.S. risks losing its ability to project power in the Indo-Pacific, shifting the regional balance of power in China’s favor.
